关键词: 蒙特卡洛模拟, 池火灾, 蒸汽云爆炸, 失效概率, 脆弱性

Abstract: To improve the ability of managers to control risks in storage tank areas, Monte Carlo simulation was used to analyze the failure probability of tanks under different failure scenarios, taking into account the time factor, ignition probability, fire and explosion synergy. Based on the leakage time, dynamic simulation of storage tank vulnerability was carried out through an example. The comprehensive vulnerability of the storage tanks varies greatly with the influence of failure scenarios, and the failure probability decreases after the final fuel is exhausted.

Key words: Monte Carlo simulation, pool fire, steam cloud explosion, failure probability, vulnerability