关键词: 油气管道, 定量评价, 修正因子, 失效概率

Abstract: Aiming at the calculation problem of failure probability of oil and gas pipelines, this paper compares and studies the commonly used index system method, statistical correction method based on historical failure data and mathematical analysis method. Then it summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of each method and points for attention in practical application. On this basis, a coefficient of correction that converts the failure probability data in the semi-quantitative evaluation results into a quantitative failure probability is proposed in combination with the index system method and statistical correction method based on historical failure data. Then it is applied to a quantitative risk assessment of the population intensive high-consequence area (HCA) in a pipeline operating company. The method is based on a large amount of semi-quantitative evaluation data accumulated by the pipeline operating company year by year. It can reduce the workload of repeated data collection to a certain extent, and lay a foundation for the subsequent development of quantitative risk evaluation.

Key words: oil and gas pipeline, quantitative evaluation, coefficient of correction, failure probability